Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2948

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.10, p 0.807). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2947, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2948
    19 Oct 2026, 08:59 UTC

    NR1H4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNR1H4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered87df375c2d61e57c

    discovery+0.10 p=0.807 n=9

    replication-0.29 p=0.443 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.10, p 0.807)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d2cac22f4a9b111898d7317a…
    follows 9940877d6069…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2948: NR1H4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.03 (p 0.894, n 18), 95% CI -0.49 to +0.44. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.03 (p 0.894, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.10 (p 0.683, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.17 to +0.10, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors -0.03 (p 0.894, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NR1H4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.