Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2909

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.19, p 0.619). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2908, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2909
    19 Oct 2026, 08:01 UTC

    DLG1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDLG1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb771115e9de50fb4

    discovery+0.19 p=0.619 n=9

    replication+0.05 p=0.891 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.19, p 0.619)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    42a8af1d760f0d62c03ad6ad…
    follows 52021fffaa9f…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2909: DLG1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.13 (p 0.597, n 18), 95% CI -0.36 to +0.57. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.14 (p 0.579, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.24 (p 0.332, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.02 to +0.26, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.13 (p 0.597, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DLG1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.