Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2890

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.25, p 0.514). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2889, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2890
    19 Oct 2026, 07:36 UTC

    ADIPOQ

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionADIPOQ in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredcb1e897508b4c7c8

    discovery+0.25 p=0.514 n=9

    replication+0.03 p=0.944 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.25, p 0.514)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d0b922f2233578328aa58c06…
    follows 49719bdb9fb0…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2890: ADIPOQ in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.09 (p 0.722, n 18), 95% CI -0.39 to +0.53. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.11 (p 0.671, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.13 (p 0.597, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.00 to +0.24, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors +0.09 (p 0.722, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ADIPOQ in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.