Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2873

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.21, p 0.586). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2872, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2873
    19 Oct 2026, 07:14 UTC

    SEC14L4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSEC14L4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5ad813c81f3705ac

    discovery-0.21 p=0.586 n=9

    replication+0.05 p=0.893 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.21, p 0.586)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9fef1379bf44cc4a728afecf…
    follows bec00855c1dd…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2873: SEC14L4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.25 (p 0.310, n 18), 95% CI -0.64 to +0.24. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.27 (p 0.281, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.48 (p 0.043, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.40 to -0.16, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.25 (p 0.310, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SEC14L4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.