Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2835

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.25, p 0.517). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2834, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2835
    19 Oct 2026, 06:22 UTC

    PDE4B

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionPDE4B in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered370474d583ea5c6b

    discovery+0.25 p=0.517 n=9

    replication+0.66 p=0.054 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.25, p 0.517)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    395db86ad63936a972aa5a4b…
    follows 79aff04b6feb…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2835: PDE4B in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.31 (p 0.218, n 18), 95% CI -0.19 to +0.68. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.36 (p 0.145, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.39 (p 0.107, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.22 to +0.42, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.31 (p 0.218, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PDE4B in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.