Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0283

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.24, p 0.529). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 282, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0283
    16 Oct 2026, 21:04 UTC

    CTSB

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCTSB in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf32f882aecc4d4b6

    discovery+0.24 p=0.529 n=9

    replication-0.17 p=0.670 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.24, p 0.529)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f302eec2fc20272e7e18293d…
    follows 7818290ab36a…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0283: CTSB in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.13 (p 0.597, n 18), 95% CI -0.57 to +0.36. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.14 (p 0.573, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.19 (p 0.460, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.28 to -0.03, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.13 (p 0.597, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CTSB in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.