Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2816

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.06, p 0.870). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2815, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2816
    19 Oct 2026, 05:57 UTC

    GRIK4

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionGRIK4 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2b3525a0ace56b66

    discovery-0.06 p=0.870 n=9

    replication-0.25 p=0.515 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.06, p 0.870)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    edc09c1abc94cf6f2d9a183a…
    follows 8db679c23bec…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2816: GRIK4 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.48 (p 0.044, n 18), 95% CI -0.77 to -0.02. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.48 (p 0.042, n 18). holds up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.50 (p 0.033, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.66 to -0.42, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.48 (p 0.044, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GRIK4 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.