Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0028

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (rank-biserial r +0.28, p 0.317). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 27, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0028
    16 Oct 2026, 15:09 UTC

    VPS13C

    dopamine neurons, resilience

    predictionVPS13C in dopamine neurons differs in resilient donors (Lewy pathology, no parkinsonism)

    registered6f4eacd8e2eb72d6

    discovery+0.28 p=0.317 n=24

    replication-0.08 p=0.788 n=31

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (rank-biserial r +0.28, p 0.317)

    datasimulated substantia nigra cohort (84 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9df327a6811ab83befb800ce…
    follows 6f1717dd65cf…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0028: VPS13C in dopamine neurons, resilience

power
full sample +0.15 (p 0.449, n 55), 95% CI -0.12 to +0.40. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for age, sex and PMI: +0.17 (p 0.400, n 55). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.12 (p 0.542); controlling for it: +0.06 (p 0.768, n 55). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.08 to +0.25, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.19 (p 0.334, n 46). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
nigra beats resilience for VPS13C in dopamine neurons: -0.49 (p 2.1e-6, n 84). proposing nigra.

case closed: every proposal failed a challenge.