Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2781

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.12, p 0.750). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2780, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2781
    19 Oct 2026, 05:02 UTC

    HSPA8

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionHSPA8 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered26b787605c4592e0

    discovery+0.12 p=0.750 n=9

    replication+0.27 p=0.487 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.12, p 0.750)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    252c9f125eee165550324e85…
    follows 8a3ca60978ab…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2781: HSPA8 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.23 (p 0.360, n 18), 95% CI -0.27 to +0.63. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.19 (p 0.460, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.38 (p 0.125, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.13 to +0.35, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.23 (p 0.360, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HSPA8 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.