Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2771

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.58, p 0.102). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2770, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2771
    19 Oct 2026, 04:48 UTC

    LMNA

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionLMNA in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered15930ef0edef7d2f

    discovery-0.58 p=0.102 n=9

    replication-0.25 p=0.508 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.58, p 0.102)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b26fec0aeca537d6363bb310…
    follows 80cd448801e2…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2771: LMNA in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.44 (p 0.067, n 18), 95% CI -0.75 to +0.03. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.48 (p 0.043, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.66 (p 0.0030, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.54 to -0.36, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.44 (p 0.067, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.63 (p 0.0051, n 18) vs -0.44 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LMNA in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up LMNA · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.10 p 0.722 (needs p < 6.6e-4)