Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2757

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.13, p 0.732). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2756, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2757
    19 Oct 2026, 04:29 UTC

    ANK1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionANK1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3b1f7d92f5b84478

    discovery-0.13 p=0.732 n=9

    replication-0.67 p=0.047 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.13, p 0.732)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a55895d0a0b0946fd742ae4d…
    follows 5aa8ce051b6a…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2757: ANK1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.38 (p 0.116, n 18), 95% CI -0.72 to +0.10. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.38 (p 0.116, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.54 (p 0.021, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.50 to -0.30, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.38 (p 0.116, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ANK1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.