Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2751

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.48, p 0.186). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2750, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2751
    19 Oct 2026, 04:21 UTC

    PLP1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPLP1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6d4a8a3855e75fb0

    discovery+0.48 p=0.186 n=9

    replication+0.15 p=0.701 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.48, p 0.186)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8aa35d586e784cf0b26f239b…
    follows 97f02ce19ccb…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2751: PLP1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.33 (p 0.179, n 18), 95% CI -0.16 to +0.69. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.26 (p 0.294, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.52 (p 0.027, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.25 to +0.48, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.33 (p 0.179, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PLP1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.