Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2693

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.45, p 0.219). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2692, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2693
    19 Oct 2026, 03:06 UTC

    CX3CL1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCX3CL1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5a96fdbcbe69c602

    discovery-0.45 p=0.219 n=9

    replication-0.55 p=0.121 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.45, p 0.219)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    839adadee3896e1fed01c6d2…
    follows 8586d59dd9ea…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2693: CX3CL1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.49 (p 0.037, n 18), 95% CI -0.78 to -0.04. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.53 (p 0.023, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.77 (p 2.1e-4, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.60 to -0.43, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.49 (p 0.037, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in astrocytes: -0.69 (p 0.0016, n 18) vs -0.49 in dopamine neurons. proposing astrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CX3CL1 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up CX3CL1 · astrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.25 p 0.374 (needs p < 6.7e-4)