Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2686

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.00, p 1.000). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2685, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2686
    19 Oct 2026, 02:58 UTC

    MAPK10

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionMAPK10 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede1ae85a3a594ee5c

    discovery+0.00 p=1.000 n=9

    replication+0.26 p=0.499 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.00, p 1.000)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    7c6a3acd38c8433ac987a29e…
    follows 7aa07dfa041a…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2686: MAPK10 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.16 (p 0.526, n 18), 95% CI -0.33 to +0.58. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.14 (p 0.567, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.29 (p 0.246, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.04 to +0.26, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.16 (p 0.526, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MAPK10 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.