Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2616

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.46, p 0.209). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2615, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2616
    19 Oct 2026, 02:02 UTC

    GHSR

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGHSR in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf4d63457797e52fa

    discovery+0.46 p=0.209 n=9

    replication+0.57 p=0.108 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.46, p 0.209)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a9234fcfc9790fb5353bffab…
    follows d7024c38e1f6…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2616: GHSR in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.59 (p 0.011, n 18), 95% CI +0.16 to +0.83. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.58 (p 0.013, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.58 (p 0.013, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.53 to +0.66, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.59 (p 0.011, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GHSR in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.