Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2575

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.56, p 0.116). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2574, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2575
    19 Oct 2026, 01:07 UTC

    MBP

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionMBP in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered704e26af417783c1

    discovery+0.56 p=0.116 n=9

    replication+0.18 p=0.639 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.56, p 0.116)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ec74cc880075331d228f26ac…
    follows 10006775326b…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2575: MBP in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.38 (p 0.125, n 18), 95% CI -0.11 to +0.72. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.40 (p 0.099, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.49 (p 0.038, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.30 to +0.52, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.38 (p 0.125, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MBP in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.