Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2572

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.78 p 0.012; held-out +0.12 p 0.756). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2571, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2572
    19 Oct 2026, 01:02 UTC

    LAG3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionLAG3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered73479ccb4ccb5a05

    discovery-0.78 p=0.012 n=9

    replication+0.12 p=0.756 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.78 p 0.012; held-out +0.12 p 0.756)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    d832fa1c3e09a54698a649ba…
    follows 87f6fcf123d0…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2572: LAG3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.31 (p 0.211, n 18), 95% CI -0.68 to +0.18. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.33 (p 0.188, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.63 (p 0.0047, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.42 to -0.22, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.31 (p 0.211, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LAG3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.