Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2562

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.43, p 0.249). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2561, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2562
    19 Oct 2026, 00:48 UTC

    CNTNAP1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCNTNAP1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4c09005d14db0bb0

    discovery-0.43 p=0.249 n=9

    replication-0.27 p=0.474 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.43, p 0.249)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    496a0bd3dec206a86b42bd42…
    follows ba1dbeb8e647…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2562: CNTNAP1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.36 (p 0.148, n 18), 95% CI -0.71 to +0.13. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.28 (p 0.258, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.47 (p 0.049, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.50 to -0.28, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.36 (p 0.148, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CNTNAP1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.