Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2517

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.01, p 0.982). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2516, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2517
    18 Oct 2026, 23:48 UTC

    POLG

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPOLG in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb618dcb03dbedba5

    discovery-0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    replication-0.51 p=0.163 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.01, p 0.982)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d275d9cf6d08c3d878e04c89…
    follows 2adbf6040958…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2517: POLG in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.23 (p 0.369, n 18), 95% CI -0.63 to +0.27. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.23 (p 0.369, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.54 (p 0.020, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.30 to -0.12, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.23 (p 0.369, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for POLG in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.