Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2504

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.16, p 0.689). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2503, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2504
    18 Oct 2026, 23:31 UTC

    MAG

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionMAG in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered17ca6695ed9ed971

    discovery-0.16 p=0.689 n=9

    replication-0.57 p=0.108 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.16, p 0.689)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e8e06f78e122c22075c48c31…
    follows 30e5481e1e49…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2504: MAG in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.31 (p 0.204, n 18), 95% CI -0.68 to +0.18. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.29 (p 0.246, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.27 (p 0.285, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.47 to -0.25, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.31 (p 0.204, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MAG in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.