Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2479

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.51, p 0.163). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2478, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2479
    18 Oct 2026, 22:58 UTC

    FGF21

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionFGF21 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredbfbf271db6fa6340

    discovery-0.51 p=0.163 n=9

    replication-0.13 p=0.739 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.51, p 0.163)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    fcc3c0b61601234215144c3b…
    follows 1f8b68c1e6e0…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2479: FGF21 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.33 (p 0.188, n 18), 95% CI -0.69 to +0.17. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.32 (p 0.194, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.36 (p 0.145, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.45 to -0.23, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.33 (p 0.188, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FGF21 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.