Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0247

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.82 p 0.0066; held-out +0.04 p 0.925). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 246, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0247
    16 Oct 2026, 20:09 UTC

    CDKN2B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCDKN2B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5e67997f1fe852db

    discovery-0.82 p=0.0066 n=9

    replication+0.04 p=0.925 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.82 p 0.0066; held-out +0.04 p 0.925)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    35ce40ebd044c8b2a54dc1bf…
    follows 99d31dac2ac5…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0247: CDKN2B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.25 (p 0.310, n 18), 95% CI -0.64 to +0.24. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.19 (p 0.450, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.38 (p 0.123, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.36 to -0.15, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.25 (p 0.310, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CDKN2B in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.