Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2457

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.39, p 0.297). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2456, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2457
    18 Oct 2026, 22:30 UTC

    ARHGEF2

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionARHGEF2 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredec29e83323b57a7c

    discovery-0.39 p=0.297 n=9

    replication-0.36 p=0.344 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.39, p 0.297)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d1370f567705d690f6409d90…
    follows f003e5f6de2c…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2457: ARHGEF2 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.22 (p 0.374, n 18), 95% CI -0.62 to +0.27. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.22 (p 0.374, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.26 (p 0.289, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.34 to -0.14, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.22 (p 0.374, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ARHGEF2 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.