Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2447

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.45, p 0.230). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2446, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2447
    18 Oct 2026, 22:17 UTC

    IL1B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionIL1B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered488b5b581b4eccb0

    discovery-0.45 p=0.230 n=9

    replication-0.63 p=0.067 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.45, p 0.230)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2d231b618271a69b697f4f01…
    follows 1f35e9499bca…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2447: IL1B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.32 (p 0.201, n 18), 95% CI -0.68 to +0.18. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.29 (p 0.239, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.49 (p 0.039, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.46 to -0.23, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.32 (p 0.201, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for IL1B in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.