Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0238

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.68 p 0.046; held-out -0.42 p 0.265). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 237, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0238
    16 Oct 2026, 19:58 UTC

    PI4KB

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPI4KB in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd1513de9ec85b0c3

    discovery-0.68 p=0.046 n=9

    replication-0.42 p=0.265 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.68 p 0.046; held-out -0.42 p 0.265)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    ff2dfa4e37a94c6aed583fe3…
    follows 41f3bc83ff3b…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0238: PI4KB in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.53 (p 0.025, n 18), 95% CI -0.80 to -0.08. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.55 (p 0.018, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.60 (p 0.0086, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.67 to -0.46, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.53 (p 0.025, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PI4KB in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.