Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2328

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.15, p 0.697). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2327, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2328
    18 Oct 2026, 19:37 UTC

    ADCY5

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionADCY5 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered655d34d9a441489c

    discovery-0.15 p=0.697 n=9

    replication-0.20 p=0.615 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.15, p 0.697)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    52c3956de7f5bda09613c257…
    follows c1b4a7fddc12…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2328: ADCY5 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.13 (p 0.609, n 18), 95% CI -0.56 to +0.36. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.10 (p 0.683, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.15 (p 0.561, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.19 to -0.01, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.13 (p 0.609, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ADCY5 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.