Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2301

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.27, p 0.487). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2300, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2301
    18 Oct 2026, 18:56 UTC

    CHRNA4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCHRNA4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf616476f5e2367d9

    discovery-0.27 p=0.487 n=9

    replication-0.62 p=0.078 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.27, p 0.487)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    81c9fed939c2a039e85c276a…
    follows 5c4899a7f34e…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2301: CHRNA4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.42 (p 0.082, n 18), 95% CI -0.74 to +0.06. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.44 (p 0.070, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.64 (p 0.0039, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.54 to -0.34, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.42 (p 0.082, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CHRNA4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.