Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0230

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.02, p 0.962). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 229, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0230
    16 Oct 2026, 19:43 UTC

    MTMR3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMTMR3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered34a63e821fe3ea41

    discovery+0.02 p=0.962 n=9

    replication+0.09 p=0.822 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.02, p 0.962)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    066276172aff291dc6913fc9…
    follows e139b56dbf33…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0230: MTMR3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.03 (p 0.901, n 18), 95% CI -0.44 to +0.49. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.10 (p 0.702, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.06 (p 0.814, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.08 to +0.16, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors +0.03 (p 0.901, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MTMR3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.