Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2268

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.70 p 0.034; held-out -0.23 p 0.545). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2267, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2268
    18 Oct 2026, 18:09 UTC

    B3GNT2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionB3GNT2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered34e25a212bb83e80

    discovery-0.70 p=0.034 n=9

    replication-0.23 p=0.545 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.70 p 0.034; held-out -0.23 p 0.545)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    bee5181bdb2c4c3218f74b8f…
    follows f3d9f8aa5e65…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2268: B3GNT2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.54 (p 0.021, n 18), 95% CI -0.80 to -0.10. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.52 (p 0.027, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.69 (p 0.0015, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.65 to -0.48, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.54 (p 0.021, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for B3GNT2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.