Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2259

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.22, p 0.563). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2258, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2259
    18 Oct 2026, 17:55 UTC

    ZIC1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionZIC1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede029a548f641a0b0

    discovery+0.22 p=0.563 n=9

    replication+0.71 p=0.032 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.22, p 0.563)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d77fc9c0a78c5e1c629b4315…
    follows 05358196de65…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2259: ZIC1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.46 (p 0.056, n 18), 95% CI -0.01 to +0.76. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.49 (p 0.040, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.49 (p 0.037, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.37 to +0.56, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.46 (p 0.056, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ZIC1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.