Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2214

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.84 p 0.0043; held-out +0.32 p 0.407). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2213, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2214
    18 Oct 2026, 16:52 UTC

    ELMO1

    microglia, braak

    predictionELMO1 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf64a171866605ddd

    discovery-0.84 p=0.0043 n=9

    replication+0.32 p=0.407 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.84 p 0.0043; held-out +0.32 p 0.407)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    8a568a0ee690482677e01249…
    follows 0841754c3bf6…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2214: ELMO1 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.14 (p 0.573, n 18), 95% CI -0.57 to +0.35. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.18 (p 0.476, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.17 (p 0.504, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.29 to -0.05, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.14 (p 0.573, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ELMO1 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.