Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2195

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.29, p 0.449). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2194, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2195
    18 Oct 2026, 16:27 UTC

    CSF1R

    microglia, braak

    predictionCSF1R in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7705be1329968628

    discovery-0.29 p=0.449 n=9

    replication-0.15 p=0.702 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.29, p 0.449)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ee23768ca8de1a2d4dbf5dec…
    follows 58a235dcb2b0…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2195: CSF1R in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.22 (p 0.389, n 18), 95% CI -0.62 to +0.28. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.21 (p 0.408, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.11 (p 0.677, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.34 to -0.11, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.22 (p 0.389, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CSF1R in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.