Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2177

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.77 p 0.014; held-out +0.15 p 0.697). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2176, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2177
    18 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC

    ROBO2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionROBO2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6941abc52b8cafec

    discovery+0.77 p=0.014 n=9

    replication+0.15 p=0.697 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.77 p 0.014; held-out +0.15 p 0.697)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    5514e17c9e29aa6d91f60dda…
    follows b4efd8bfce8b…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2177: ROBO2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.47 (p 0.048, n 18), 95% CI +0.01 to +0.77. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.48 (p 0.045, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.53 (p 0.024, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.40 to +0.62, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.47 (p 0.048, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ROBO2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.