Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2159

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.07, p 0.855). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2158, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2159
    18 Oct 2026, 15:32 UTC

    MICU3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMICU3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredcbee69ea798df96b

    discovery-0.07 p=0.855 n=9

    replication+0.61 p=0.078 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.07, p 0.855)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9a57f059f624c88e8b5d4039…
    follows ccc5e99bc07a…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2159: MICU3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.20 (p 0.434, n 18), 95% CI -0.30 to +0.61. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.21 (p 0.408, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.15 (p 0.555, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.10 to +0.30, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.20 (p 0.434, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: +0.65 (p 0.0036, n 18) vs +0.20 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MICU3 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up MICU3 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.20 p 0.477 (needs p < 7.4e-4)