Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2151

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.73 p 0.025; held-out -0.17 p 0.665). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2150, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2151
    18 Oct 2026, 15:18 UTC

    CTF1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCTF1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1e872ff9360cfd86

    discovery-0.73 p=0.025 n=9

    replication-0.17 p=0.665 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.73 p 0.025; held-out -0.17 p 0.665)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    fcd9c8fde3bfc73147084b89…
    follows a82b550efe13…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2151: CTF1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.29 (p 0.246, n 18), 95% CI -0.67 to +0.21. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.24 (p 0.346, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.25 (p 0.310, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.41 to -0.20, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.29 (p 0.246, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CTF1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.