Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2149

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.785). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2148, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2149
    18 Oct 2026, 15:16 UTC

    ANKRD55

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionANKRD55 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8c89fa30d62393cd

    discovery-0.11 p=0.785 n=9

    replication-0.44 p=0.240 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.785)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b1bff45bb600902cd90e8e04…
    follows 2648f31871de…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2149: ANKRD55 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.30 (p 0.221, n 18), 95% CI -0.67 to +0.19. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.36 (p 0.137, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.46 (p 0.055, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.42 to -0.22, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.30 (p 0.221, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ANKRD55 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.