Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0213

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.11, p 0.787). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 212, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0213
    16 Oct 2026, 19:17 UTC

    APOE

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionAPOE in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredeb5c83e29417c4c0

    discovery+0.11 p=0.787 n=9

    replication+0.14 p=0.718 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.11, p 0.787)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    139b9c7355c3e08fd8bc41d5…
    follows 4a6516e9edc5…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0213: APOE in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.08 (p 0.748, n 18), 95% CI -0.40 to +0.53. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.01 (p 0.976, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.17 (p 0.498, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.03 to +0.21, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors +0.08 (p 0.748, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for APOE in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.