Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2129

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.05, p 0.891). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2128, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2129
    18 Oct 2026, 14:43 UTC

    LRRC37A2

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionLRRC37A2 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc534f3f79a18012d

    discovery-0.05 p=0.891 n=9

    replication+0.19 p=0.623 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.05, p 0.891)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b4be5c531fff0ea9ff79a802…
    follows 4062b6a09a76…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2129: LRRC37A2 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.04 (p 0.867, n 18), 95% CI -0.43 to +0.50. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.06 (p 0.800, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.19 (p 0.444, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.07 to +0.18, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors +0.04 (p 0.867, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LRRC37A2 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.