Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2124

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.04, p 0.928). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2123, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2124
    18 Oct 2026, 14:37 UTC

    SHROOM4

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionSHROOM4 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb2018652dcd0d045

    discovery-0.04 p=0.928 n=9

    replication-0.54 p=0.130 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.04, p 0.928)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d9b4d2647c9848d024876e9a…
    follows e28620540a14…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2124: SHROOM4 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.18 (p 0.471, n 18), 95% CI -0.60 to +0.31. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.18 (p 0.465, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.14 (p 0.591, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.28 to -0.08, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.18 (p 0.471, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SHROOM4 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.