Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2100

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.21, p 0.586). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2099, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2100
    18 Oct 2026, 14:04 UTC

    DSCAM

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionDSCAM in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered999bcea1e1c0a1e5

    discovery-0.21 p=0.586 n=9

    replication+0.20 p=0.602 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.21, p 0.586)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b7c2efd26494d12bc9dd3b85…
    follows c92e42e8e8cc…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2100: DSCAM in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.09 (p 0.715, n 18), 95% CI -0.54 to +0.39. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.05 (p 0.834, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.12 (p 0.640, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.19 to +0.04, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors -0.09 (p 0.715, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DSCAM in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.