Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2077

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.46, p 0.217). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2076, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2077
    18 Oct 2026, 13:31 UTC

    CCNA1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCCNA1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2300b4620f0fb617

    discovery+0.46 p=0.217 n=9

    replication+0.42 p=0.258 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.46, p 0.217)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c3ba2c9eeb4d1e78f1dca0d1…
    follows 95e83f8b9448…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2077: CCNA1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.40 (p 0.099, n 18), 95% CI -0.08 to +0.73. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.34 (p 0.164, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.32 (p 0.191, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.31 to +0.52, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.40 (p 0.099, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CCNA1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.