Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2034

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.15, p 0.701). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2033, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2034
    18 Oct 2026, 12:28 UTC

    PDS5A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPDS5A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered042159eac8d6c899

    discovery+0.15 p=0.701 n=9

    replication-0.02 p=0.962 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.15, p 0.701)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a2ed5d1a3cf547250e425115…
    follows 822a1b97b669…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2034: PDS5A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.00 (p 0.990, n 18), 95% CI -0.46 to +0.47. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.05 (p 0.834, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.10 (p 0.702, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.12 to +0.13, sign flips 9; without severely affected donors +0.00 (p 0.990, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PDS5A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.