Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1998

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.66, p 0.054). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1997, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1998
    18 Oct 2026, 11:33 UTC

    WDFY1

    microglia, braak

    predictionWDFY1 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda9c466d09a82eeeb

    discovery-0.66 p=0.054 n=9

    replication+0.26 p=0.493 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.66, p 0.054)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    dc74080be3fe8639808f991d…
    follows d4c0a6548e02…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1998: WDFY1 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.21 (p 0.398, n 18), 95% CI -0.62 to +0.28. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.22 (p 0.379, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.15 (p 0.544, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.33 to -0.10, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.21 (p 0.398, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for WDFY1 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.