Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1973

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.49, p 0.184). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1972, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1973
    18 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC

    P2RY12

    microglia, braak

    predictionP2RY12 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc08863f3ab486730

    discovery+0.49 p=0.184 n=9

    replication-0.19 p=0.630 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.49, p 0.184)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    47d7cd118cb1817105434e25…
    follows 3298966f6bbf…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1973: P2RY12 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.22 (p 0.384, n 18), 95% CI -0.28 to +0.62. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.22 (p 0.384, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.35 (p 0.156, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.15 to +0.40, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.22 (p 0.384, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for P2RY12 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.