Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1943

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.09, p 0.820). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1942, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1943
    18 Oct 2026, 10:13 UTC

    ARHGAP1

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionARHGAP1 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered32df28d3e21c856b

    discovery-0.09 p=0.820 n=9

    replication-0.55 p=0.125 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.09, p 0.820)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8f9b5b40db4684b4a9075cf5…
    follows bc86ec307ee7…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1943: ARHGAP1 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.24 (p 0.332, n 18), 95% CI -0.64 to +0.25. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.18 (p 0.476, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.23 (p 0.369, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.43 to -0.15, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.24 (p 0.332, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ARHGAP1 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.