Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0194

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.30, p 0.428). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 193, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0194
    16 Oct 2026, 18:44 UTC

    SCN7A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSCN7A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede355b7ba1b8b1350

    discovery+0.30 p=0.428 n=9

    replication+0.34 p=0.369 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.30, p 0.428)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d6a2f94a92ee57957cd1160e…
    follows e6e21f792f13…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0194: SCN7A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.35 (p 0.153, n 18), 95% CI -0.14 to +0.70. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.32 (p 0.198, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.31 (p 0.214, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.25 to +0.47, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.35 (p 0.153, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SCN7A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.