Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1938

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.39, p 0.297). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1937, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1938
    18 Oct 2026, 10:07 UTC

    FAM171A1

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionFAM171A1 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered01f934a0052fc4d6

    discovery-0.39 p=0.297 n=9

    replication-0.27 p=0.489 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.39, p 0.297)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2d22709c83a67afdd63f71c5…
    follows acd352cca085…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1938: FAM171A1 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.35 (p 0.150, n 18), 95% CI -0.70 to +0.14. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.34 (p 0.164, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.39 (p 0.111, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.51 to -0.26, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.35 (p 0.150, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FAM171A1 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.