Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1933

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.64, p 0.063). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1932, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1933
    18 Oct 2026, 09:59 UTC

    ABL2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionABL2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered565c36afd002e733

    discovery+0.64 p=0.063 n=9

    replication+0.58 p=0.101 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.64, p 0.063)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    df8eb0c3271a13c4aba90c96…
    follows 8d27d7d3c7b4…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1933: ABL2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.42 (p 0.084, n 18), 95% CI -0.06 to +0.74. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.52 (p 0.028, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.46 (p 0.056, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.34 to +0.56, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.42 (p 0.084, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in OPCs: -0.67 (p 0.0022, n 18) vs +0.42 in dopamine neurons. proposing OPCs.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ABL2 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up ABL2 · OPCs · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.65 p 0.021 (needs p < 7.8e-4)