Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1905

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.62, p 0.073). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1904, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1905
    18 Oct 2026, 09:21 UTC

    CDC42BPB

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCDC42BPB in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd6accb9a4dc58d1e

    discovery-0.62 p=0.073 n=9

    replication-0.11 p=0.773 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.62, p 0.073)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    7b17a74b9c87b11df99880ca…
    follows 9f14c0a91f2e…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1905: CDC42BPB in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.35 (p 0.160, n 18), 95% CI -0.70 to +0.14. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.35 (p 0.149, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.39 (p 0.107, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.48 to -0.26, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.35 (p 0.160, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.68 (p 0.0018, n 18) vs -0.35 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CDC42BPB in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up CDC42BPB · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.22 p 0.424 (needs p < 8.2e-4)