Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1881

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.12, p 0.768). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1880, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1881
    18 Oct 2026, 08:48 UTC

    SH3RF3

    microglia, braak

    predictionSH3RF3 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede0594b0ac8e405f3

    discovery-0.12 p=0.768 n=9

    replication-0.42 p=0.262 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.12, p 0.768)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    26c98f73776dde487240d5d6…
    follows 08ddac46a6b1…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1881: SH3RF3 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.33 (p 0.185, n 18), 95% CI -0.69 to +0.16. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.39 (p 0.114, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.37 (p 0.130, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.44 to -0.23, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.33 (p 0.185, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SH3RF3 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.